Abstract
BACKGROUND: An association between pneumococcal serotypes and mortality has been suggested. We aimed to investigate this among individuals aged ≥15 years with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in South Africa. METHODS: IPD cases were identified through national laboratory-based surveillance at 25 sites, pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, from 2003-2008. We assessed the association between the 20 commonest serotypes and in-hospital mortality using logistic regression with serotype 4 (the third commonest serotype with intermediate case-fatality ratio (CFR)) as referent. RESULTS: Among 3953 IPD cases, CFR was 55% (641/1166) for meningitis and 23% (576/2484) for bacteremia (p<0.001). Serotype 19F had the highest CFR (48%, 100/207), followed by serotype 23F (39%, 99/252) and serotype 1 (38%, 246/651). On multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with mortality included serotype 1 (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.1-3.5) and 19F (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.4-6.1) vs. serotype 4; increasing age (25-44 years, OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.0-3.0; 45-64 years, OR 3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.4; ≥65 years, OR 5.2, 95%CI 1.9-14.1; vs. 15-24 years); meningitis (OR 4.1, 95%CI 3.0-5.6) vs. bacteremic pneumonia; and HIV infection (OR1.7, 95%CI 1.0-2.8). On stratified multivariate analysis, serotype 19F was associated with increased mortality amongst bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia cases, while no serotype was associated with increased mortality in meningitis cases. CONCLUSION: Mortality was increased in HIV-infected individuals, which may be reduced by increased antiretroviral therapy availability. Serotypes associated with increased mortality are included in the 10-and-13-valent PCV and may become less common in adults due to indirect effects following routine infant immunization.