Abstract
Background: Recent studies of various human microbiome habitats have revealed thousands of bacterial species and the existence of large variation in communities of microorganisms in the same habitats across individual human subjects. Previous efforts to summarize this diversity, notably in the human gut and vagina, have categorized microbiome profiles by clustering them into community state types (CSTs). The functional relevance of specific CSTs has not been established. Objective: We investigate whether CSTs can be used to assess dynamics in the microbiome. Design: We conduct a re-analysis of five sequencing-based microbiome surveys derived from vaginal samples with repeated measures. Results: We observe that detection of a CST transition is largely insensitive to choices in methods for normalization or clustering. We find that healthy subjects persist in a CST for two to three weeks or more on average, while those with evidence of dysbiosis tend to change more often. Changes in CST can be gradual or occur over less than one day. Upcoming CST changes and switches to high-risk CSTs can be predicted with high accuracy in certain scenarios. Finally, we observe that presence of Gardnerella vaginalis is a strong predictor of an upcoming CST change. Conclusion: Overall, our results show that the CST concept is useful for studying microbiome dynamics.