Abstract
Objective: This quantitative study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on students' persistence at a minority-serving, open-access, public, urban community college in New York City. Specifically, the project looked at factors associated with mid-semester college withdrawals during spring 2020 when the college shifted to remote instruction due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: Utilizing data from three spring semesters (spring 2018, 2019, and 2020), four logistic regression models tested the marginal effects of student background and college program factors on mid-semester withdrawal and the moderating effect of spring 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak semester. Results: Findings indicated that the withdrawal rates were higher for new students, men, minoritized students, and part-time students across all three spring semesters. Spring 2020 disproportionally affected part-time students, men, Black students, as well as readmitted students. The greatest increase in the probability of mid-semester college withdrawal was observed for Black men who had been enrolled part-time in spring 2020. Belonging to a highly structured full-time study program protected students from leaving mid-semester, although this protection was weaker in spring 2020 and spring 2019 compared to spring 2018. Contributions: The research highlights the equity gap for Black men at the college and points to additional factors contributing to mid-semester college attrition. The work provides insights into factors that worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study thereby contributes to understanding short-term risk factors for vulnerable student populations and adds to the body of literature on crisis situations in higher education.