Abstract
The biggest difficulty of hidden Markov model applied to multistep attack is the determination of observations. Now the research of the determination of observations is still lacking, and it shows a certain degree of subjectivity. In this regard, we integrate the attack intentions and hidden Markov model (HMM) and support a method to forecasting multistep attack based on hidden Markov model. Firstly, we train the existing hidden Markov model(s) by the Baum-Welch algorithm of HMM. Then we recognize the alert belonging to attack scenarios with the Forward algorithm of HMM. Finally, we forecast the next possible attack sequence with the Viterbi algorithm of HMM. The results of simulation experiments show that the hidden Markov models which have been trained are better than the untrained in recognition and prediction.