Forward-backward and period doubling bifurcations in a discrete epidemic model with vaccination and limited medical resources

在考虑疫苗接种和有限医疗资源的离散流行病模型中,前向-后向分岔和倍周期分岔

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Abstract

A discrete epidemic model with vaccination and limited medical resources is proposed to understand its underlying dynamics. The model induces a nonsmooth two dimensional map that exhibits a surprising array of dynamical behavior including the phenomena of the forward-backward bifurcation and period doubling route to chaos with feasible parameters in an invariant region. We demonstrate, among other things, that the model generates the above described phenomena as the transmission rate or the basic reproduction number of the disease gradually increases provided that the immunization rate is low, the vaccine failure rate is high and the medical resources are limited. Finally, the numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our main results.

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