Abstract
The ability of the agent of plague, Yersinia pestis, to form a biofilm blocking the gut of the flea has been considered to be a key evolutionary step in maintaining flea-borne transmission. However, blockage decreases dramatically the life expectancy of fleas, challenging the adaptive nature of blockage. Here, we develop an epidemiological model of plague that accounts for its different transmission routes, as well as the within-host competition taking place between bacteria within the flea vector. We use this theoretical framework to identify the environmental conditions promoting the evolution of blockage. We also show that blockage is favored at the onset of an epidemic, and that the frequencies of bacterial strains exhibiting different strategies of blockage can fluctuate in seasonal environments. This analysis quantifies the contribution of different transmission routes in plague and makes testable predictions on the adaptive nature of blockage.