Abstract
Predicting the prognosis and adverse events (AEs) of nivolumab therapy for recurrent esophageal cancer is very important. The present study investigated whether a simple blood biochemical examination could be used to predict prognosis and AEs following nivolumab treatment for relapse of esophageal cancer. A total of 41 patients who received nivolumab treatment for recurrent esophageal cancer after esophagectomy were analyzed. The absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) and C-reactive protein-albumin ratio (CAR) were assessed at the time of nivolumab induction as indices that can be calculated by blood biochemical examinations alone. Median values were 1,015 for ALC, 3.401 for NLR, 242.6 for PLR, 0.458 for MLR and 0.119 for CAR, and patients were divided into two groups according to values. A high ALC, low NLR, low PLR, low MLR and low CAR were associated with a better response to nivolumab. In addition, patients with the aforementioned indices, with the exception of low PLR, or better response were more likely to develop AEs in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, a high ALC [odds ratio (OR): 4.857, P=0.043] and low CAR (OR: 9.099, P=0.004) were identified as independent risk factors for AEs. Survival analysis revealed that overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) rates after nivolumab treatment differed significantly between the high and low groups of ALC, NLR, PLR, MLR and CAR. The multivariate analysis identified a low ALC [hazard ratio (HR): 3.710, P=0.003] and high CAR (HR: 2.953, P=0.007) as independent poor prognostic factors of PFS. In conclusion, ALC and CAR have potential as biomarkers for outcomes of recurrent esophageal cancer following nivolumab treatment.