Abstract
Marine plankton communities form intricate networks of interacting organisms at the base of the food chain, and play a central role in regulating ocean biogeochemical cycles and climate. However, predicting plankton community shifts in response to climate change remains challenging. While species distribution models are valuable tools for predicting changes in species biogeography under climate change scenarios, they generally overlook the key role of biotic interactions, which can significantly shape ecological processes and ecosystem responses. Here, we introduce a novel statistical framework, association distribution modelling (ADM), designed to model and predict ecological associations distribution in space and time. Applied on a Tara Oceans genome-resolved metagenomics dataset, the present-day biogeography of ADM-inferred marine plankton associations revealed four major biogeographic biomes organized along a latitudinal gradient. We predicted the evolution of these biome-specific communities in response to a climate change scenario, highlighting differential responses to environmental change. Finally, we explored the functional potential of impacted plankton communities, focusing on carbon fixation, outlining the predicted evolution of its geographical distribution and implications for ecosystem function.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.