Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Elevated 2-h plasma glucose concentration (2 h-PG) during a 75 g OGTT predict the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1 h-PG) is associated with insulin secretion and may be a better predictor of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association between 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG using gold standard methods for measuring insulin secretion and action. We also compared 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG as predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: This analysis included adult volunteers without diabetes, predominantly Native Americans of Southwestern heritage, who were involved in a longitudinal epidemiological study from 1965 to 2007, with a baseline OGTT that included measurement of 1 h-PG. Group 1 (n = 716) underwent an IVGTT and hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp for measurement of acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin-stimulated glucose disposal (M), respectively. Some members of Group 1 (n = 490 of 716) and members of a second, larger, group (Group 2; n = 1946) were followed-up to assess the development of type 2 diabetes (median 9.0 and 12.8 years follow-up, respectively). RESULTS: Compared with 2 h-PG (r = -0.281), 1 h-PG (r = -0.384) was more closely associated with AIR, whereas, compared with 1 h-PG (r = -0.340), 2 h-PG (r = -0.408) was more closely associated with M. Measures of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG had similar abilities to predict type 2 diabetes, which did not change when both were included in the model. A 1 h-PG cut-off of 9.3 mmol/l provided similar levels of sensitivity and specificity as a 2 h-PG cut-off of 7.8 mmol/l; the latter is used to define impaired glucose tolerance, a recognised predictor of type 2 diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The 1 h-PG was associated with important physiological predictors of type 2 diabetes and was as effective as 2 h-PG for predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus. The 1 h-PG is, therefore, an alternative method of identifying individuals with an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.