Abstract
BACKGROUND: The typical hospital Length of Stay (LOS) distribution is known to be right-skewed, to vary considerably across Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), and to contain markedly high values, in significant proportions. These very long stays are often considered outliers, and thin-tailed statistical distributions are assumed. However, resource consumption and planning occur at the level of medical specialty departments covering multiple DRGs, and when considered at this decision-making scale, extreme LOS values represent a significant component of the distribution of LOS (the right tail) that determines many of its statistical properties. OBJECTIVE: To build actionable statistical models of LOS for resource planning at the level of healthcare units. METHODS: Through a study of 46, 364 electronic health records over four medical specialty departments (Pediatrics, Obstetrics/Gynecology, Surgery, and Rehabilitation Medicine) in the largest hospital in Thailand (Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok), we show that the distribution of LOS exhibits a tail behavior that is consistent with a subexponential distribution. We analyze some empirical properties of such a distribution that are of relevance to cost and resource planning, notably the concentration of resource consumption among a minority of admissions/patients, an increasing residual LOS, where the longer a patient has been admitted, the longer they would be expected to remain admitted, and a slow convergence of the Law of Large Numbers, making empirical estimates of moments (e.g. mean, variance) unreliable. RESULTS: We propose a novel Beta-Geometric model that shows a good fit with observed data and reproduces these empirical properties of LOS. Finally, we use our findings to make practical recommendations regarding the pricing and management of LOS.