Abstract
BACKGROUND: Currently, there are no available tools to identify infants at the highest risk of significant morbidity and mortality from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) who would benefit most from RSV prevention products. The objective was to develop and internally validate a personalized risk prediction tool for use among all newborns that uses readily available birth/postnatal data to predict RSV LRTI requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. METHODS: We conducted a population-based birth cohort study of infants born from 1995 to 2007, insured by the Tennessee Medicaid Program, and who did not receive RSV immunoprophylaxis during the first year of life. The primary outcome was severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission during the first year of life. We built a multivariable logistic regression model including demographic and clinical variables available at or shortly after birth to predict the primary outcome. RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 429 365 infants, 713 (0.2%) had severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission. The median age of admission was 66 days (interquartile range, 37-120). Our tool, including 19 variables, demonstrated good predictive accuracy (area under the curve, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.80) and identified infants who did not qualify for palivizumab, based on American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines, but had higher predicted risk levels than infants who qualified (27% of noneligible infants with >0.16% predicted probabilities [lower quartile for eligible infants]). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a personalized tool that identified infants at increased risk for severe RSV LRTI requiring ICU admission, expected to benefit most from immunoprophylaxis.