Abstract
Driven by the demand for more sustainable products, research and capital investment has been committed to developing microbially produced oils. While researchers have shown oleaginous yeasts and other microbes can produce low-carbon footprint oils by leveraging waste streams as energy sources, previous analyses have not fully explored the quantity of available waste streams and in turn economy-of-scale enabled on capital and operating expenses. This paper makes parallels to 2G ethanol facilities, enabling a data-driven understanding of large-scale production economics. Production costs are broken down for a variety of scenarios. The analysis finds that reaching price parity with large-scale commodity oils (e.g., palm oil, high-oleic cooking oils, biofuels feedstock oils, lauric acid) is not possible today and unlikely even under aggressive future assumptions about strain productivity. Instead, commercial production must be targeted at end markets where sustainability-conscious consumers are willing to pay the price premiums identified in this paper. ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: This paper makes parallels to 2G ethanol facilities, enabling a data-driven understanding of large-scale production economics for microbial lipids.