Abstract
The low-carbon development of power industry is the key to low-carbon development of the whole society. In order to determine appropriate and feasible emission reduction policies, it is necessary to identify the contribution of different drivers to the change of carbon emissions in China's power sector and to simulate the potential evolution trend of carbon emissions. This paper constructs LMDI model to analyze the driving factors of carbon emission changes in China's power industry from 2000 to 2018 and uses Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate the evolution trend of carbon emission under different scenarios. We can find (1) economic output effect reached 3.817 billion tons from 2000 to 2018, which was the primary factor to increase the carbon emission. Population scale effect reached 251million tons, which had a weak promotion impact on carbon emission. (2) Conversion efficiency effect played a role in restraining carbon emissions, reaching 699 million tons from 2000 to 2018. (3) Emission factor effect and power intensity effect have obvious volatility. The power structure effect showed great volatility before 2013 and mainly played a role in restraining carbon emission after 2013. (4) Under the baseline scenario, the carbon emission of China's power industry shows a growth trend. Under green development scenario and enhanced carbon reduction scenario, the carbon emission shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.