Abstract
Casting light on how the interaction between protection and density dependence affects fish population dynamics is critical for understanding the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs). We developed a framework based on nonparametric statistics, model selection and multi-model inference to contrast alternative hypotheses about the effect of density dependence on demographic dynamics under protected and unprotected conditions. We trialed it using a 12-year long time series of white seabream (Diplodus sargus sargus) population density within the no-take zone of Torre Guaceto MPA (Italy) and at two nearby unprotected locations. Then, we showed how the demographic models obtained can be used to assess the consequences of protection on population viability. Population dynamics were significantly influenced by fish density within the MPA and at one of the unprotected locations, where demography is possibly driven by directional recruitment subsidy from the MPA. The comparison of population growth rates within and outside the MPA suggests that in unprotected conditions the fishery may remove a fraction between 40 and 70% of the population each year. The population viability analysis pointed out that, while the probability that the population becomes depleted (i.e. undergoes a local, temporary quasi-extinction) is high in unprotected locations, it is negligible within the no-take zone of the MPA.