Abstract
BACKGROUND: Advances in HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced mortality in people living with HIV (PLHIV), resulting in an ageing population of PLHIV. Knowledge of demographic details such as age, geographical location and sex, will aid in the planning of training and resource allocation to effectively care for the future complex health needs of PLHIV. METHODS: An agent-based, stochastic, geographical model was developed to determine the current and future demographic of PLHIV in Australia. Data and parameters were sourced from Australia's National HIV Registry and peer reviewed literature. Processes that were simulated include progression to AIDS, mortality and internal migration. FINDINGS: The model estimates the mean age of PLHIV in Australia is increasing at a rate of 0.49 years each year. The expected proportion of PLHIV in over 55 years is estimated to increase from 25.3% in 2010 to 44.2% in 2020. Median age is lower in inner-city areas of the capital cities than in rural areas. The areas with the highest prevalence of HIV will continue to be capital cities; however, other areas will have greater percentage growth from 2010 to 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The age of the population of people living with HIV is expected to increase considerably in the future. As the population of PLHIV ages, specialist clinical training and resource provision in the aged care sector will also need to be addressed.