Abstract
Little is known about the long-term association between high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) test results in women participating in a hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening program. To address this question, we collected data of 2217 women who participated in the POBASCAM hrHPV-based screening trial (enrolment 1999/2002) and also attended the Dutch hrHPV-based screening program between January 2017 and March 2018. Among 143 women who tested hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002, 45 (31.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 17 (11.9%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. In comparison, among 2074 women who tested hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002, 10 (0.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 119 (5.7%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. It follows that in the group of women who were not treated for ≥ CIN2 or had a hysterectomy in between the two screens 15 years apart (N = 2162), women who were hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002 had a higher risk of being hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 than those who were hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002 (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.8-6.1). A similar association was found at the genotype level for genotype-concordant results (5.1, 1.0-11.3) and for genotype non-concordant results (3.7, 1.6-6.7). Women who were hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 had a higher risk of CIN3 after a hrHPV-positive result in 1999/2002 than after a hrHPV-negative result (5.8, 1.0-27.8). In conclusion, a positive hrHPV result in screening gives a long-term increased risk of a hrHPV-positive result, also for different genotypes, and a long-term increased risk of CIN3. This supports the concept of risk-stratification in hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening where previous hrHPV results are included in screening recommendations.