Abstract
The survival status of Lumnitzera littorea is near threatened globally and critically endangered in China. Clarifying its global distribution pattern and its changing trends under different future climate models is of great significance for the protection and restoration of its endangered status. To build a model for this purpose, this study selected 73 actual distribution points of Lumnitzera littorea worldwide, combined with 12 environmental factors, and simulated its potential suitable habitats in six periods: the Last Interglacial (130,000-115,000 years ago), the Last Glacial Maximum (27,000-19,000 years ago), the Mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), the present (1970-2000), and the future 2050s (2041-2060) and 2070s (2061-2080). The results show that the optimal model parameter combination is the regularization multiplier RM = 4.0 and the feature combination FC (Feature class) = L (Linear) + Q (Quadratic) + P (Product). The MaxEnt model has a low omission rate and a more concise model structure. The AUC values in each period are between 0.981 and 0.985, indicating relatively high prediction accuracy. Min temperature of the coldest month, mean diurnal range, clay content, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and elevation are the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution. The environmental conditions for min temperature of the coldest month at ≥19.6 °C, mean diurnal range at <7.66 °C, clay content at 34.14%, precipitation of the warmest quarter at ≥570.04 mm, and elevation at >1.39 m are conducive to Lumnitzera littorea's survival and distribution. The global potential distribution areas are located along coasts. Starting from the paleoclimate, the plant's distribution has gradually expanded, and its adaptability has gradually improved. In China, the range of potential highly suitable habitats is relatively narrow. Hainan Island is the core potential habitat, but there are fragmented areas in regions such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Taiwan. The modern centroid of Lumnitzera littorea is located at (109.81° E, 2.56° N), and it will shift to (108.44° E, 3.22° N) in the later stage of the high-emission scenario (2070s (SSP585)). Under global warming trends, it has a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes. The development of the aquaculture industry and human deforestation has damaged the habitats of Lumnitzera littorea, and its population size has been sharply and continuously decreasing. The breeding and renewal system has collapsed, seed abortion and seedling establishment failure are common, and genetic variation is too scarce. This may indicate why Lumnitzera littorea is near threatened globally and critically endangered in China. Therefore, the protection and restoration strategies we propose are as follows: strengthen the legislative guarantee and law enforcement supervision of the native distribution areas of Lumnitzera littorea, expanding its population size outside the native environment, and explore measures to improve its seed germination rate, systematically collecting and introducing foreign germplasm resources to increase its genetic diversity.