Abstract
BACKGROUND: Ecological niche models (ENMs) and analyses of niche overlap/divergence have become popular methods in ecology and evolutionary biology. These analyses rely on environmental data available from several databases. However, the influence of data sources on these analyses is rarely tested. Here, we test the impact of climatic data choice on the prediction of current and Plio-Pleistocene suitable habitats for two distantly related, but broadly sympatric, salamanders endemic to the Korean Peninsula. We ran MaxEnt separately on WorldClim and CHELSA climate data. We then hindcasted ENMs to five time periods of the Plio-Pleistocene, bracketing the estimated intraspecific divergence times for these species. We then quantified the differences in predictions between WorldClim- and CHELSA-based models. Also, given the sympatry and similar habitat requirements of the two species, we tested for niche overlaps using niche identity and background tests and tested the sensitivity of the results to climatic data choice. RESULTS: The ENMs successfully predicted contemporary suitable habitats for the two species. However, the predictions were highly sensitive to climatic data choice as well as variable combinations. The hindcasted ENMs produced contrasting predictions depending on the choice of climatic dataset and failed to predict suitable habitats for some Pleistocene time periods regardless of the climatic data choice. The niche analyses were also sensitive to climatic data choice, with results suggesting either niche overlaps or divergence depending on the climatic dataset used for the analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the influence of climatic data choice on the outcomes of ENMs and niche analyses. Our results also underscore the limitations of macroclimate-based ENMs, especially when the species is likely buffered from macroclimatic changes by microhabitat. We argue for the need for additional ecological, ecophysiological, and population genomic studies to better understand the range formation of these enigmatic species.