Abstract
Microbial communities living in the same environment often display alternative stable states, each characterized by a unique composition of species. Understanding the origin and determinants of microbiome multistability has broad implications in environments, human health, and microbiome engineering. However, despite its conceptual importance, how multistability emerges in complex communities remains largely unknown. Here, we focused on the role of horizontal gene transfer (HGT), one important aspect mostly overlooked in previous studies, on the stability landscape of microbial populations. Combining mathematical modeling and numerical simulations, we demonstrate that, when mobile genetic elements (MGEs) only affect bacterial growth rates, increasing HGT rate in general promotes multistability of complex microbiota. We further extend our analysis to scenarios where HGT changes interspecies interactions, microbial communities are subjected to strong environmental selections and microbes live in metacommunities consisting of multiple local habitats. We also discuss the role of different mechanisms, including interspecies interaction strength, the growth rate effects of MGEs, MGE epistasis and microbial death rates in shaping the multistability of microbial communities undergoing HGT. These results reveal how different dynamic processes collectively shape community multistability and diversity. Our results provide key insights for the predictive control and engineering of complex microbiota.