Abstract
One of the defining features of the Anthropocene is eroding ecosystem services, decreases in biodiversity, and overall reductions in the abundance of once-common organisms, including many insects that play innumerable roles in natural communities and agricultural systems that support human society. It is now clear that the preservation of insects cannot rely solely on the legal protection of natural areas far removed from the densest areas of human habitation. Instead, a critical challenge moving forward is to intelligently manage areas that include intensively farmed landscapes, such as the Central Valley of California. Here we attempt to meet this challenge with a tool for modeling landscape connectivity for insects (with pollinators in particular in mind) that builds on available information including lethality of pesticides and expert opinion on insect movement. Despite the massive fragmentation of the Central Valley, we find that connectivity is possible, especially utilizing the restoration or improvement of agricultural margins, which (in their summed area) exceed natural areas. Our modeling approach is flexible and can be used to address a wide range of questions regarding both changes in land cover as well as changes in pesticide application rates. Finally, we highlight key steps that could be taken moving forward and the great many knowledge gaps that could be addressed in the field to improve future iterations of our modeling approach.