Abstract
Objective: To compare whether falls risk score and incident fracture over 10.7 years were different among three previously identified pain phenotypes. Methods: Data on 915 participants (mean age 63 years) from a population-based cohort study were studied at baseline and follow-ups at 2.6, 5.1 and 10.7 years. Three pain phenotypes were previously identified using the latent class analysis: Class 1: high prevalence of emotional problems and low prevalence of structural damage; Class 2: high prevalence of structural damage and low prevalence of emotional problems; Class 3: low prevalence of emotional problems and low prevalence of structural damage. Fractures were self-reported and falls risk score was measured using the Physiological Profile Assessment. Generalized estimating equations model and linear mixed-effects model were used to compare differences in incident fractures and falls risk score over 10.7 years between pain phenotypes, respectively. Results: There were 3 new hip, 19 vertebral, and 121 non-vertebral fractures, and 138 any site fractures during 10.7-year follow-up. Compared with Class 3, Class 1 had a higher risk of vertebral (relative risk (RR) = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.22-4.91), non-vertebral fractures (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01-1.42), and any site fractures (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04-1.46) after controlling for covariates, bone mineral density and falls risk score. Class 2 had a higher risk of non-vertebral and any site fracture relative to those in Class 3 (non-vertebral: RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.17-1.71; any site: RR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.20-1.73), but not vertebral fracture. Compared with Class 3, Class 1 had a higher falls risk score at baseline (β = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.09-0.23) and over 10.7-year (β = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.01-0.04). Conclusions: Class 1 and/or Class 2 had a higher risk of incident fractures and falls risk score than Class 3, highlighting that targeted preventive strategies for fractures and falls are needed in pain population.