Abstract
Postprandial glucose levels between 4 and 7.9 h (PPG(4-7.9h)) correlate with mortality from various diseases, including hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. This study aimed to assess if predicted PPG(4-7.9h) could diagnose diabetes. Two groups of participants were involved: Group 1 (4420 participants) had actual PPG(4-7.9h), while Group 2 (8422 participants) lacked this measure but had all the diabetes diagnostic measures. Group 1 underwent multiple linear regression to predict PPG(4-7.9h) using 30 predictors, achieving accuracy within 11.1 mg/dL in 80% of the participants. Group 2 had PPG(4-7.9h) predicted using this model. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that predicted PPG(4-7.9h) could diagnose diabetes with an accuracy of 87.3% in Group 2, with a sensitivity of 75.1% and specificity of 84.1% at the optimal cutoff of 102.5 mg/dL. A simulation on 10,000 random samples from Group 2 revealed that 175 participants may be needed to investigate PPG(4-7.9h) as a diabetes diagnostic marker with a power of at least 80%. In conclusion, predicted PPG(4-7.9h) appears to be a promising diagnostic indicator for diabetes. Future studies seeking to ascertain its definitive diagnostic value might require a minimum sample size of 175 participants.