Abstract
Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) after heart transplantation (HT) remains a significant clinical issue. This study aimed to explore the incidence, trends, outcomes, and clinical predictors of GIB in HT patients. Adult patients who underwent HT between 2015 and 2021 at Union Hospital were recruited and divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of postoperative GIB. The primary outcomes were evaluated at follow-up. Independent predictors of GIB after HT were identified using a logistic regression analysis. A nomogram prediction model was constructed according to these independent variables, and the accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve. Among the 461 patients, 40 (8.7%) developed GIB post-HT. HT patients with postoperative GIB exhibited higher in-hospital, 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality (all p < 0.05). A multivariate analysis was used to identify age, preoperative warfarin, postoperative continuous renal replacement therapy, and postoperative nasogastric tubes as independent risk factors for GIB following HT. A nomogram prediction model was applied using the four variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of this model was 0.852 (95% CI: 0.787-0.917, p < 0.001), and the calibration curve was close to the ideal diagonal line. GIB following HT is associated with a poor clinical prognosis. The constructed nomogram demonstrated a favorable predictive value for GIB.