Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the performance of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) and the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence of clinicians in ambulatory medical oncology outpatients. METHODS: Eight medical oncologists estimated the expected survival of their patients in a prospective cohort study. They were asked to provide a temporal type of CPS in weeks, together with their level of confidence for each prediction (0-100%). We analyzed the accuracy of CPS, the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence, and the characteristics of patients showing inaccurate CPS. RESULTS: A total of 200 advanced cancer patients were enrolled and the median overall survival was 7.6 months. CPS was accurate in 67 (33.5%) patients, underestimated in 87 (43.5%), and overestimated in 46 (23.0%). The overall accuracy of CPS for 12-week, 24-week, 36-week, and 48-week survival was 83.0%, 72.0%, 75.5%, and 74.0%, respectively. The specificity was highest for 12-week survival (90.2%) and the sensitivity was highest for 48-week survival (96.1%). The sensitivity of 12-week CPS was 51.4% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.87). The prognostic confidence of clinicians was not significantly associated with the accuracy of prediction (P = 0.359). Patients with overestimated survival had significantly poorer global health status and physical/role/emotional functioning in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Additionally, they showed significantly higher levels of fatigue, nausea/vomiting, pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite. CONCLUSION: The overall accuracy of CPS in predicting 12-week to 48-week survival was high in medical oncology outpatients. However the sensitivity of 12-week CPS was low and prognostic confidence was not associated with the accuracy of CPS. Patients with overestimated CPS showed poorer quality of life and higher symptom burden.