Abstract
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, new variants have continuously emerged and spread in populations. Among these, variants of concern (VOC) have been the main culprits of successive epidemic waves, due to their transmissibility, pathogenicity or ability to escape the immune response. Quantification of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes in raw wastewater is a reliable approach well-described and widely deployed worldwide to monitor the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in human populations connected to sewage systems. Discrimination of VOCs in wastewater is also a major issue and can be achieved by genome sequencing or by detection of specific mutations suggesting the presence of VOCs. This study aimed to date the emergence of these VOCs (from Alpha to Omicron BA.2) by monitoring wastewater from the greater Paris area, France, but also to model the propagation dynamics of these VOCs and to characterize the replacement kinetics of the prevalent populations. These dynamics were compared to various individual-centered public health data, such as regional incidence and the proportions of VOCs identified by sequencing of strains isolated from patient. The viral dynamics in wastewater highlighted the impact of the vaccination strategy on the viral circulation within human populations but also suggested its potential effect on the selection of variants most likely to be propagated in immunized populations. Normalization of concentrations to capture population movements appeared statistically more reliable using variations in local drinking water consumption rather than using PMMoV concentrations because PMMoV fecal shedding was subject to variability and was not sufficiently relevant in this study. The dynamics of viral spread was observed earlier (about 13 days on the wave related to Omicron VOC) in raw wastewater than the regional incidence alerting to a possible risk of decorrelation between incidence and actual virus circulation probably resulting from a lower severity of infection in vaccinated populations.