Abstract
Using genomics, bioinformatics and statistics, herein we demonstrate the effect of statewide and nationwide quarantine on the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) in Hawai'i. To define the origins of introduced VOC, we analyzed 260 VOC sequences from Hawai'i, and 301,646 VOC sequences worldwide, deposited in the GenBank and global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID), and constructed phylogenetic trees. The trees define the most recent common ancestor as the origin. Further, the multiple sequence alignment used to generate the phylogenetic trees identified the consensus single nucleotide polymorphisms in the VOC genomes. These consensus sequences allow for VOC comparison and identification of mutations of interest in relation to viral immune evasion and host immune activation. Of note is the P71L substitution within the E protein, the protein sensed by TLR2 to produce cytokines, found in the B.1.351 VOC may diminish the efficacy of some vaccines. Based on the phylogenetic trees, the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429 VOC have been introduced in Hawai'i multiple times since December 2020 from several definable geographic regions. From the first worldwide report of VOC in GenBank and GISAID, to the first arrival of VOC in Hawai'i, averages 320 days with quarantine, and 132 days without quarantine. As such, the effect of quarantine is shown to significantly affect the time to arrival of VOC in Hawai'i. Further, the collective 2020 quarantine of 43-states in the United States demonstrates a profound impact in delaying the arrival of VOC in states that did not practice quarantine, such as Utah. Our data demonstrates that at least 76% of all definable SARS-CoV-2 VOC have entered Hawai'i from California, with the B.1.351 variant in Hawai'i originating exclusively from the United Kingdom. These data provide a foundation for policy-makers and public-health officials to apply precision public health genomics to real-world policies such as mandatory screening and quarantine.