Abstract
BACKGROUND: Noninvasively detecting epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status in lung adenocarcinoma patients before targeted therapy remains a challenge. This study aimed to develop a 3-dimensional (3D) convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model to predict EGFR mutation status using computed tomography (CT) images. METHODS: We retrospectively collected 660 patients from 2 large medical centers. The patients were divided into training (n=528) and external test (n=132) sets according to hospital source. The CNN model was trained in a supervised end-to-end manner, and its performance was evaluated using an external test set. To compare the performance of the CNN model, we constructed 1 clinical and 3 radiomics models. Furthermore, we constructed a comprehensive model combining the highest-performing radiomics and CNN models. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used as primary measures of performance for each model. Delong test was used to compare performance differences between different models. RESULTS: Compared with the clinical [training set, area under the curve (AUC) =69.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.661-0.732; test set, AUC =68.4%, 95% CI, 0.609-0.752] and the highest-performing radiomics models (training set, AUC =84.3%, 95% CI, 0.812-0.873; test set, AUC =72.4%, 95% CI, 0.653-0.794) models, the CNN model (training set, AUC =94.3%, 95% CI, 0.920-0.961; test set, AUC =94.7%, 95% CI, 0.894-0.978) had significantly better predictive performance for predicting EGFR mutation status. In addition, compared with the comprehensive model (training set, AUC =95.7%, 95% CI, 0.942-0.971; test set, AUC =87.4%, 95% CI, 0.820-0.924), the CNN model had better stability. CONCLUSIONS: The CNN model has excellent performance in non-invasively predicting EGFR mutation status in patients with lung adenocarcinoma and is expected to become an auxiliary tool for clinicians.