Abstract
BACKGROUND: Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) remains a significant global health concern, with a subset of cases progressing to Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia (SCAP). This study aims to develop and validate a CT-based radiomics model for the early detection of SCAP to enable timely intervention and improve patient outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 115 CAP and SCAP patients at Southern Medical University Shunde Hospital from January to December 2021. Using the Pyradiomics package, 107 radiomic features were extracted from CT scans, refined via intra-class and inter-class correlation coefficients, and narrowed down using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression model. The predictive performance of the radiomics-based model was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, employing machine learning classifiers such as k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), and Random Forest (RF), trained and validated on datasets split 7:3, with a training set (n = 80) and a validation set (n = 35). RESULTS: The radiomics model exhibited robust predictive performance, with the RF classifier achieving superior precision and accuracy compared to LR, SVM, and KNN classifiers. Specifically, the RF classifier demonstrated a precision of 0.977 (training set) and 0.833 (validation set), as well as an accuracy of 0.925 (training set) and 0.857 (validation set), suggesting its superior performance in both metrics. Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was utilized to evaluate the clinical efficacy of the RF classifier, demonstrating a favorable net benefit within the threshold ranges of 0.1 to 0.8 for the training set and 0.2 to 0.7 for the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The radiomics model developed in this study shows promise for early SCAP detection and can improve clinical decision-making.