Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between baseline kidney function and subsequent all-cause mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: A general population-based cohort study from rural Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: People aged 18 years and above with measured baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), recruited from survey rounds in 2011-2012 or 2014-2015 and followed up to March 2019. OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, identified through reports from community health workers and verified by verbal autopsy. The association between baseline eGFR category and mortality was determined using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 5812 participants in both rounds, we included 5678 (97.7%) participants with kidney function and mortality data; the median age was 36 years (IQR 24-50), 60.7% were female, 10.3% were hypertensive, 9.8% were HIV-positive and 1.5% were diabetic. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 3.7-6.0) there were 140 deaths. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline was associated with a 5.97 (95% CI 2.55 to 13.98) increased risk of mortality compared with those with baseline eGFR >90 mL/min/1.73 m(2). After inclusion of additional confounders (HIV, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, alcohol and smoking status) into the model, eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline remained strongly associated with mortality (HR 6.12, 95% CI 2.27 to 16.45), although the sample size fell to 3102. Test for trend showed strong evidence (p<0.001) that the rate of mortality increased progressively as the category of baseline kidney function decreased. When very high eGFR was included as a separate category in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, baseline eGFR ≥120 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.87) compared with the reference category of 90-119 mL/min/1.73 m(2). CONCLUSION: In a prospective cohort in rural Uganda we found that impaired baseline kidney function was associated with subsequently increased total mortality. Improved understanding of the determinants of kidney disease and its progression is needed in order to inform interventions for prevention and treatment.