Abstract
Changes in habitat suitability are critical indicators of the ecological impacts of climate change. Syndiclis Hook. f., a rare and endangered genus endemic to montane limestone and cloud forest ecosystems in China, holds considerable ecological and economic value. However, knowledge of its current distribution and the key environmental factors influencing its habitat suitability remains limited. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model, integrated with geographic information systems (ArcGIS), to predict the potential distribution of Syndiclis under current and future climate scenarios, identify dominant bioclimatic drivers, and assess temporal and spatial shifts in habitat patterns. We also analyzed spatial displacement of habitat centroids to explore potential migration pathways. The model demonstrated excellent performance (AUC = 0.988), with current suitable habitats primarily located in Hainan, Taiwan, Southeastern Yunnan, and along the Yunnan-Guangxi border. Temperature seasonality (bio7) emerged as the most important predictor (67.00%), followed by precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 14.90%), while soil factors played a relatively minor role. Under future climate projections, Hainan and Taiwan are expected to serve as stable climatic refugia, whereas the overall suitable habitat area is projected to decline significantly. Combined with topographic constraints, population decline, and limited dispersal ability, these changes elevate the risk of extinction for Syndiclis in the wild. Landscape pattern analysis revealed increased habitat fragmentation under warming conditions, with only 4.08% of suitable areas currently under effective protection. We recommend prioritizing conservation efforts in regions with habitat contraction (e.g., Guangxi and Yunnan) and stable refugia (e.g., Hainan and Taiwan). Conservation strategies should integrate targeted in situ and ex situ actions, guided by dominant environmental variables and projected migration routes, to ensure the long-term persistence of Syndiclis populations and support evidence-based conservation planning.