Abstract
Understanding the potential distribution patterns and habitat suitability of threatened species under climate change scenarios is essential for conservation efforts. This study aimed to assess the current and future distribution patterns of the endangered Cycas taiwaniana in China using the MaxEnt model under two contrasting climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) and SSP3-7.0 (high emissions), projected for the 2050s and 2070s periods. The model identified key bioclimatic variables influencing habitat suitability, including Annual Mean Temperature, Mean Diurnal Range, and Temperature Seasonality. Under current climate conditions, the species' most suitable habitats are primarily located in southern coastal regions, with Hainan Island showing exceptional suitability. However, future projections under the moderate emission (SSP1-2.6) scenario suggest a significant shrinking of suitable habitat areas, particularly a 27.5% decline in excellent and a 35% decrease in good categories by the 2070s. In contrast, under the high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), while an initial decline in suitable habitats is projected, the model predicts an unexpected expansion of highly suitable areas by 2070, particularly in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian coastal regions. The results highlight the vulnerability of C. taiwaniana to climate change and underscore the importance of developing adaptive conservation strategies to mitigate potential habitat loss. The findings also emphasize the need for further research on species-specific responses to climate change and the development of proactive measures to safeguard the future distribution of this threatened species.