Abstract
As an endangered species, the habitat of Cycas balansae (C. balansae) is subject to a variety of impacts, including climate change and human activities, and exploring its adaptive distribution and conservation areas under such conditions is crucial to protecting the ecological security of endangered species. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and Marxan v4.0.6 to systematically evaluate the adaptive distribution and priority protection areas of the endangered species C. balansae. The results showed that the endangered species C. balansae is concentrated in Xishuangbanna and its surrounding zones in the southern Yunnan Province. The main factors affecting the distribution of C. balansae were temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter, among which temperature was the dominant factor. Under different climate scenarios in the future, the adaptive distribution area of C. balansae showed a slight decrease, and the adaptive distribution showed a northward migration trend. The future climate distribution pattern is closely related to temperature seasonality and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. In addition, the influence of anthropogenic disturbances on the distribution of C. balansae cannot be ignored. Currently, there is a large range of conservation vacancies for C. balansae, and it is recommended that Simao City be used as a priority conservation area. This study provides new insights for determining the priority conservation areas and conservation strategies for the endangered species C. balansae.