Abstract
Magnolia sieboldii, an important ornamental tree native to East Asia, comprises two subspecies in distinct regions, with wild populations facing suboptimal survival. This study aimed to understand the potential habitat distribution of these subspecies under future climate-change conditions to support climate-adaptive conservation. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with occurrence and environmental data to simulate the current and future suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. Precipitation in the warmest quarter played a crucial role in shaping the potential habitats of both subspecies; however, they exhibited different sensitivities to temperature-related variables and altitude. Magnolia sieboldii subsp. sieboldii is more sensitive to temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature, whereas Magnolia sieboldii subsp. japonica is more affected by altitude, mean temperature in the driest quarter, and isothermality. Currently, the subsp. sieboldii is predicted to have larger, more contiguous suitable habitats across northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, whereas the subsp. japonica occupies smaller, more disjunct habitats scattered in central and western Japan and the southern Chinese mountains. These two subspecies will respond differently to future climate change. Potentially suitable habitats for subsp. sieboldii are expected to expand significantly northward over time, especially under the SSP585 scenario compared with the SSP126 scenario. In contrast, moderately and highly suitable habitats for the subsp. japonica are projected to contract southward significantly. Therefore, we recommend prioritizing the conservation of the subsp. japonica over that of the subsp. sieboldii. Strategies include in situ and ex situ protection, introduction and cultivation, regional hybridization, and international cooperation. Our study offers valuable insights for the development of targeted conservation strategies for both subspecies of M. sieboldii to counteract the effects of climate change.