Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To explore the risk probability and main influencing factors of stroke in followed-up hypertension patients through the analysis of long-term followed-up cohort data. METHODS: The method of followed-up observation cohort was used to collect the information of 168,417 followed-up hypertension patients from 2002 to 2020 in Jiading District in Shanghai. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the risk probability of stroke complications in long-term followed-up HTN patients, and the influencing factors were analyzed by Cox proportional risk model. RESULTS: Among 168,417 followed-up hypertension patients, 11,143 cases had suffered stroke, and the cumulative incidence rate of stroke was 6.62% (male was 6.87%, female was 6.37%). With the extension of the hypertension years, the cumulative risk probability of stroke in HTN patients would continue to increase and the interval was not equidistant. The total cumulative risk probability of stroke in HTN patients was 78.9% (male was 91.0%, female was 70.7%). During the period of hypertension, the risk occurring probability of stroke was not fixed, but fluctuating. There were 4 onset peaks, which were in 8 years (probability was 4.2%), 15 years (probability was 14.0%), 22 years (probability was 6.0%) and 26 years (probability was 13.9%). The highest risk probability of male patients was in 26 years (probability was 23.1%), and the second peak was in 15 years (probability was 15.6%). The highest risk probability of female patients was in 15 years (probability was 12.9%), and the second peak was in 26 years (probability was 8.7%). The risk probability of different gender, BP grade and BMI was different, the male were at higher risk than the female, stage 3 HTN was higher than stage 2 and stage 1 HTN, obese people and underweight people were at higher risk than those who have normal weight. The main factors closely related to the occurrence of stroke complications were age (RR = 2.917, p < 0.001), body mass index (RR = 1.654, p < 0.001), family history of stroke (RR = 1.386, p < 0.001) and blood pressure grade (RR = 1.148, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The risk probability of stroke among hypertension patients was high in followed-up hypertension patients (total 78.9%, male 91.0%, female 70.7%), and would continue to increase disproportionately during period of hypertension (4 different onset peaks). With the persistence of hypertension, the risk probability of stroke would increase continuously. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that male patients, patients with HBP, abnormal BMI and positive family history were main factors closely related to the occurrence of stroke complications.