Abstract
Accurate and rapid prediction of water quality is crucial for the protection of aquatic ecosystems. This study aims to enhance the prediction of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River by integrating advanced modeling techniques. Using operational and discharge data from the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), along with water quality parameters from downstream sections, we used Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to rank the factors contributing to TP concentrations. The analysis identified turbidity, permanganate index (CODMn), total nitrogen (TN), water temperature, chlorophyll a, upstream water level variation, and discharge from the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) as the top contributors. Subsequently, a coupled neural network model was established, incorporating these key contributors, to predict TP concentrations under the dynamic water level control during flood periods in the TGR. The proposed GRA-CEEMDAN-CN1D-LSTM-DBO model was compared with conventional models, including BP, LSTM, and GRU. The results indicated that the GRA-CEEMDAN-CN1D-LSTM-DBO model significantly outperformed the others, achieving a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.784 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.004, compared to 0.58 (R) and 0.007 (RMSE) for the LSTM model, 0.576 (R) and 0.007 (RMSE) for the BP model, and 0.623 (R) and 0.006 (RMSE) for the GRU model. The model's accuracy and applicability further validated in two sections: YC (Yunchi) in Yichang City and LK (Liukou) in Jingzhou City, where it performed satisfactorily in predicting TP in YC (R = 0.776, RMSE = 0.007) and LK (R = 0.718, RMSE = 0.007). Additionally, deep learning analysis revealed that as the distance away from dam increased, prediction accuracy gradually decreased, indicating a reduced impact of TGR operations on downstream TP concentrations. In conclusion, the GRA-CEEMDAN-CN1D-LSTM-DBO model demonstrates superior performance in predicting TP concentration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, offering valuable insights for dynamic water level control during flood seasons and contributing of smart to the advancement of water management in the Yangtze River.