Abstract
Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common malignant brain tumor in adults, which remains incurable and often recurs rapidly after initial therapy. While large efforts have been dedicated to uncover genomic/transcriptomic alternations associated with the recurrence of GBMs, the evolutionary trajectories of matched pairs of primary and recurrent (P-R) GBMs remain largely elusive. It remains challenging to identify genes associated with time to relapse (TTR) and construct a stable and effective prognostic model for predicting TTR of primary GBM patients. By integrating RNA-sequencing and genomic data from multiple datasets of patient-matched longitudinal GBMs of isocitrate dehydrogenase wild-type (IDH-wt), here we examined the associations of TTR with heterogeneities between paired P-R GBMs in gene expression profiles, tumor mutation burden (TMB), and microenvironment. Our results revealed a positive correlation between TTR and transcriptomic/genomic differences between paired P-R GBMs, higher percentages of non-mesenchymal-to-mesenchymal transition and mesenchymal subtype for patients with a short TTR than for those with a long TTR, a high correlation between paired P-R GBMs in gene expression profiles and TMB, and a negative correlation between the fitting level of such a paired P-R GBM correlation and TTR. According to these observations, we identified 55 TTR-associated genes and thereby constructed a seven-gene (ZSCAN10, SIGLEC14, GHRHR, TBX15, TAS2R1, CDKL1, and CD101) prognostic model for predicting TTR of primary IDH-wt GBM patients using univariate/multivariate Cox regression analyses. The risk scores estimated by the model were significantly negatively correlated with TTR in the training set and two independent testing sets. The model also segregated IDH-wt GBM patients into two groups with significantly divergent progression-free survival outcomes and showed promising performance for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival rates in all training and testing sets. Our findings provide new insights into the molecular understanding of GBM progression at recurrence and potential targets for therapeutic treatments.