Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is no practical dementia risk score in the clinical setting. OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a score obtained by a rapid and simple assessment, which guides primary care providers in predicting the risk of dementia among older adults. DESIGN: A total of 4178 participants from three longitudinal cohorts (mean age at baseline = 76.8 [SD = 7.6] years), without baseline dementia, followed annually for a median of 10 years (IQR: 5 to16 years, Reverse Kaplan-Meier). PARTICIPANTS: To derive the score, we used data from 1,780 participants from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (93% White). To validate the score, we used data from 1,299 participants from the Religious Order Study (92% White), and to assess generalizability, 679 participants from the Minority Aging Research Study (100% Black). MEASUREMENTS: Clinician-based dementia diagnosis at any time after baseline and predictive variables associated with dementia risk that can be collected in a primary care setting: demographics, clinical indicators, medical history, memory complaints, cognitive and motor tests, and questions to assess functional disability, depressive symptoms, sleep, social isolation, and genetics (APOE e4 and AD polygenic risk score). RESULTS: At baseline, age, memory complaint, the ability to handle finances, the recall of the month, recall of the room, and recall of three words, were associated with the cumulative incidence of dementia, in the derivation cohort. The discrimination of the RADaR (Rapid Risk Assessment of Dementia) was good for the derivation and external-validation cohorts (AUC3 years = 0.82-0.86), compared to the overall discrimination of age alone (AUC3 years = 0.73), a major risk factor for dementia. Adding genetic data did not increase discrimination. LIMITATIONS: Participants were volunteers, may not represent the general population. CONCLUSIONS: The RADaR, derived from community-dwelling older persons, is a brief and valid tool to predict dementia risk at 3 years in older White and Black persons.