Abstract
The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions (dN/dS) encodes important information about the selection pressures acting on protein-coding genes. In bacterial populations, dN/dS often declines with the sequence divergence between strains, but the mechanisms responsible for this broad empirical trend are still debated. Existing models have primarily focused on de novo mutations, overlooking the older genetic variants that are continually introduced through horizontal gene transfer and recombination. Here we introduce a phenomenological model of dN/dS in recombining populations of bacteria, which allows us to disentangle the effects of recombination among pairs of closely related strains. We find that clonally inherited regions of the genome exhibit consistently higher dN/dS ratios, and that the accumulation of recombined segments can quantitatively explain the majority of the decline in dN/dS. We use these observations to re-examine models of purifying selection and adaptive reversion in human gut bacteria, and uncover evidence for widespread weak selection at a large fraction of protein coding sites. Our findings show that horizontal gene transfer can be an important factor in shaping genome-wide patterns of selective constraint, and raise new questions about the effectiveness of natural selection in complex bacterial populations.