Abstract
One marker of arterial stiffness (AS) is the brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). We aim to investigate the predictive value of baPWV with regard to new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). All participants without AF from 2010 to 2020 in the Kailuan cohort were included. The primary endpoint was new-onset AF. Participants were categorized into three study groups based on baPWV, with a normal baPWV group as a reference. The predictive value of baPWV was analyzed as a continuous variable. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the association. A total of 49,872 subjects (mean age: 47.57 years old, 74.2% male) were included with a mean follow-up of 6.17 (3.95-8.46) years. The risk of AF increased as the baseline baPWV increased, whereby the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of the borderline AS group and the elevated AS group were 1.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-2.80) and 2.08 (95% CI: 1.31-3.30), respectively. When considered as a continuous variable, each 361 cm/s increase in baseline baPWV, increased the risk of AF by 21.7% (aHR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08-1.37). In the subgroup analysis of non-hypertensive patients, the risks of AF were significantly higher in the borderline AS group (aHR: 3.16, 95% CI: 1.74-5.74) and elevated AS group (aHR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.02-5.05). For patients with elevated BMI, the risk of AF in the elevated AS group was significantly higher (aHR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.00-2.83). Baseline baPWV was associated with new-onset AF after adjustments. (Trial registration site and registration number are, respectively, http://www.chictr.org.cn/index.aspx and ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489).