Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global stressor with inter-individually differing influences on mental health trajectories. Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) for psychiatric phenotypes are associated with individual mental health predispositions. Elevated hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) and high PRSs are related to negative mental health outcomes. We analyzed whether PRSs and HCC are related to different mental health trajectories during the first COVID lockdown in Germany. Among 523 participants selected from the longitudinal resilience assessment study (LORA), we previously reported three subgroups (acute dysfunction, delayed dysfunction, resilient) based on weekly mental health (GHQ-28) assessment during COVID lockdown. DNA from blood was collected at the baseline of the original LORA study (n = 364) and used to calculate the PRSs of 12 different psychopathological phenotypes. An explorative bifactor model with Schmid-Leiman transformation was calculated to extract a general genetic factor for psychiatric disorders. Hair samples were collected quarterly prior to the pandemic for determining HCC (n = 192). Bivariate logistic regressions were performed to test the associations of HCC and the PRS factors with the reported trajectories. The bifactor model revealed 1 general factor and 4 sub-factors. Results indicate a significant association between increased values on the general risk factor and the allocation to the acute dysfunction class. The same was found for elevated HCC and the exploratorily tested sub-factor "childhood-onset neurodevelopmental disorders". Genetic risk and long-term cortisol secretion as a potential indicator of stress, indicated by PRSs and HCC, respectively, predicted different mental health trajectories. Results indicate a potential for future studies on risk prediction.