Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Whether healthcare providers can secure the number of beds that may be required during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the sufficiency of the hospital beds available to the healthcare system of Yamanashi, Japan, in accommodating hospitalized and severely ill patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In total, 60 hospitals, with > 20 beds each, were included in this study (n = 10,684). However, beds in the psychiatric and tuberculosis wards (n = 2,295), nonoperational beds (n = 376), and beds for patients in the recovery and chronic phases (n = 3,494) were excluded. The projected occupancy rate was calculated based on the estimated number of patients, including severely ill patients requiring hospitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the number of hospitalized patients, we created an adjusted model to calculate the mean occupancy rate of beds for each medical area in the prefecture (Model 1), which is free of areal occupancy rate biases. Moreover, we created an adjusted model that places severely ill patients in the two advanced acute hospitals in Yamanashi, thereby calculating the bed occupancy rates in other hospitals with > 200 beds (Model 2). RESULTS: A total of 4,519 beds were analyzed. Although the existing infectious disease beds may not be able to accommodate the projected number of severely ill patients, the existing capacity can accommodate all patients projected to require hospitalization during the pandemic. In Model 1, the mean bed occupancy rate was 50%. Conversely, in Model 2, advanced acute hospital beds were insufficient for the projected number of severely ill patients, and the mean bed occupancy rate was 72.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment of patients across the medical area borders enables the existing hospital beds to accommodate the estimated number of patients requiring hospitalization or those who are severely ill.