Abstract
Preventing the progression of acute pancreatitis (AP) to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is crucial for AP patients. The use of clinical parameters in laboratory facilities for predicting SAP can be rapid, efficient, and cost-effective. This study aimed to investigate the predictive and prognostic value of collected clinical detection parameters, such as serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and their ratios, such as ALP-to-hemoglobin (Hb) and LDH-to-Hb ratios, for the prediction of SAP occurrence, complications, and mortality. In all, 50 healthy controls (CON), 455 patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP), 127 patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), and 93 patients with SAP were included in the study. Thirty clinical parameters were collected, measured, compared, and analyzed. The ratios of ALP/Hb and LDH/Hb were subsequently calculated and evaluated with respect to gender and age and whether they could predict SAP occurrence, complications, and mortality. The results revealed that 15 parameters were significant for the prediction of AP. Furthermore, the following 6 indicators are associated with the occurrence of SAP: ALP, ALP/Hb, LDH, LDH/Hb, CRP, and blood glucose. Among these parameters, the predictive abilities of ALP/Hb and LDH/Hb for SAP were most effective. However, they fail to differentiate between MAP and MSAP or gender in SAP patients. Positive correlations were only observed between the levels of these indicators and age at onset of SAP. In addition, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to predict SAP incidence rates, complications, and mortality. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the ALP/Hb ratio ranged from 0.7097 to 0.7837, whereas those for the LDH/Hb ratio ranged from 0.5043 to 0.7778. These findings suggest that ALP and LDH alone or in combination with Hb possess unique predictive characteristics that may serve as independent factors for predicting SAP occurrence, complications, and mortality; of these, the ALP/Hb ratio is especially predictive of SAP mortality.