Abstract
Objective Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has spread globally, and it is important to utilize medical resources properly, especially in critically ill patients. We investigated the validity of chest radiography as a tool for predicting aggravation in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases. Methods A total of 104 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were referred from the cruise ship "Diamond Princess" to the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital in Japan from February 11 to 25, 2020. Fifty-nine symptomatic patients were selected. Chest radiography was performed upon hospitalization; subsequently, patients were categorized into the positive radiograph (Group A) and negative radiograph (Group B) groups. Radiographic findings were analyzed with a six-point semiquantitative score. Group A was further classified into two additional subgroups: patients who required oxygen therapy during their clinical courses (Group C) and patients who did not (Group D). Clinical records, laboratory data, and radiological findings were collected for an analysis. Results Among 59 patients, 34 were men with a median age of 60 years old. Groups A, B, C, and D consisted of 33, 26, 12, and 21 patients, respectively. The number of patients requiring oxygen administration was significantly larger in Group A than in Group B. The consolidation score on chest radiographs was significantly higher in Group C than in Group D. When chest radiographs showed consolidation in more than two lung fields, the positive likelihood ratio of deterioration was 10.6. Conclusions Chest radiography is a simple and easy-to-use clinic-level triage tool for predicting the severity of COVID-19 and may contribute to the allocation of medical resources.