Abstract
Association between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity and ambient temperature has been examined with generalized linear model (GLM) or generalized additive model (GAM). However, the effect size by these two methods might be biased due to the autocorrelation of time series data and arbitrary selection of degree of freedom of natural cubic splines. The present study analyzed how the climatic factors affected AMI morbidity for older adults in Shanghai with Mixed generalized additive model (MGAM) that addressed these shortcomings mentioned. Autoregressive random effect was used to model the relationship between AMI and temperature, PM10, week days and time. The degree of freedom of time was chosen based on the seasonal pattern of temperature. The performance of MGAM was compared with GAM on autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and goodness of fit. One-year predictions of AMI counts in 2011 were conducted using MGAM with the moving average. Between 2007 and 2011, MGAM adjusted the autocorrelation of AMI time series and captured the seasonal pattern after choosing the degree of freedom of time at 5. Using MGAM, results were well fitted with data in terms of both internal (R2 = 0.86) and external validity (correlation coefficient = 0.85). The risk of AMI was relatively high in low temperature (Risk ratio = 0.988 (95% CI 0.984, 0.993) for under 12°C) and decreased as temperature increased and speeded up within the temperature zone from 12°C to 26°C (Risk ratio = 0.975 (95% CI 0.971, 0.979), but it become increasing again when it is 26°C although not significantly (Risk ratio = 0.999 (95% CI 0.986, 1.012). MGAM is more appropriate than GAM in the scenario of response variable with autocorrelation and predictors with seasonal variation. The risk of AMI was comparatively higher when temperature was lower than 12°C in Shanghai as a typical representative location of subtropical climate.