Abstract
Medical certification is often needed for absences of longer than one workday. The literature remains unclear as to whether this changes absenteeism. Earlier research found that the merging of two firms can augment or diminish short-term absenteeism. This study was conducted to examine whether prolonging self-certification or merging increases short-term absenteeism. Data from January 2014 to December 2021 were retrospectively collected from HR absenteeism files at two occupational health services in Belgium. Sickness periods of longer than 4 weeks were excluded. Company 1 started a merger in 2014, and company 2 prolonged of the self-certification period in 2018. The total full-time equivalents (FTEs) of company 1 increased by 6%, while company 2 had an increase of 28%. At company 1, there was a decline in absenteeism, while company 2 had an increase. The ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model provided a statistically significant local moving average (company 1: 0.123; company 2: 0.086) but no statistically significant parameters for the intervention (company 1: 0.007, p = 0.672; company 2: 0.000, p = 0.970). Prolonging the self-certification period by up to 5 days without medical certification or merging was not found to increase short-term absenteeism.