Abstract
BACKGROUND: The research aimed to construct a novel predictive nomogram to identify specific metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma (mGAC) populations who could benefit from primary tumor resection (PTR). METHOD: Patients with mGAC were included in the SEER database and divided into PTR and non-PTR groups. The Kaplan-Meier analysis, propensity score matching (PSM), least absolute shrink and selection operator (LASSO) regression, multivariable logistic regression, and multivariate Cox regression methods were then used. Finally, the prediction nomograms were built and tested. RESULTS: 3185 patients with mGAC were enrolled. Among the patients, 679 cases underwent PTR while the other 2506 patients didn't receive PTR. After PSM, the patients in the PTR group presented longer median overall survival (15.0 vs. 7.0 months, p < 0.001). Among the PTR group, 307 (72.9%) patients obtained longer overall survival than seven months (beneficial group). Then the LASSO logistic regression was performed, and gender, grade, T stage, N stage, pathology, and chemotherapy were included to construct the nomogram. In both the training and validation cohorts, the nomogram exhibited good discrimination (AUC: 0.761 and 0.753, respectively). Furthermore, the other nomogram was constructed to predict 3-, 6-, and 12-month cancer-specific survival based on the variables from the multivariate Cox analysis. The 3-, 6-, and 12-month AUC values were 0.794, 0.739, and 0.698 in the training cohort, and 0.805, 0.759, and 0.695 in the validation cohorts. The calibration curves demonstrated relatively good consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities of survival in two nomograms. The models' clinical utility was revealed through decision curve analysis. CONCLUSION: The benefit nomogram could guide surgeons in decision-making and selecting optimal candidates for PTR among mGAC patients. And the prognostic nomogram presented great prediction ability for these patients.