Abstract
BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is a promising tool for diagnosing and predicting cancer prognosis. However, its clinical utility in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) remains unclear, particularly in terms of clinical prognosis. METHODS: We enrolled 124 patients with mRCC in the MONSTAR-SCREEN study (UMIN 000036749) between August 2019 and February 2022, a national observational ctDNA-based screening study, and performed ctDNA sequencing before and at the time of resistance to systemic therapy. RESULTS: ctDNA were assessed in 178 samples containing 432 mutations. The most frequently altered genes at baseline were VHL (25.0%), PBRM1 (10.9%), TERT2 (8.7%), BAP1 (8.7%), and MTOR (7.6%). Patients receiving first-line therapy with tumor fraction (TF) < 1.2% showed significantly better progression-free survival than those with TF ≥ 1.2% (Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.467; 95% CI 0.229-0.979; p = 0.0425). BAP1 mutational status of ctDNA at baseline led to poor OS (HR = 0.4867; 95% CI 0.322-0.736; p = 0.0003). Serial ctDNA analysis showed that 46.8% of patients developed new ctDNA mutations at disease progression, which was linked to shorter time to progression (p = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that ctDNA profiling is feasible in mRCC and can predict disease progression after treatment.