Abstract
We created optimal urban expansion scenarios that also safeguard green spaces using SLEUTH-3r in the National Capital Region, Ottawa, Ontario. The scenarios were based on using two exclusion layers in SLEUTH-3r modeling, adjustments to the model's calibrated growth coefficients for a compact city scenario and applying green space social equity weights to urban zones in model's prediction results. The first exclusion layer contained common restricted areas for urban growth, while the second additionally incorporated cores of green spaces defined through Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), core importance and their corridors for connectivity. For each scenario, we selected 23,850 hectares as the required urban growth by the year 2050 and only 10% of this amount (2385 ha), to encourage more compact growth. We compared the scenarios based on the affected green space cores and urban growth polygons using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In most cases, scenarios incorporating MSPA were the favored ones. As the first attempt integrating MSPA definition of green space cores, their importance and connectivity into SLEUTH-3r model, we showed that MSPA-informed SLEUTH-3r modeling affects prediction results and provides a useful platform for generating scenarios. Incorporating MSPA information into SLEUTH-3r modeling enhanced the protection of green space cores and their connectivity. However, it also led to the selection of smaller urbanization polygons for the year 2050, distributed across the study area. Focusing on the preferred options, social equity weights and the selected polygons, provides city planners and stakeholders with valuable assistance and flexibility in designing urban growth scenarios while protecting green spaces.