Abstract
Counterfeit or substandard drugs are pharmaceutical formulations in which the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) have been replaced or ingredients do not comply with the drug leaflet. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, fraud associated with the preparation of substandard or counterfeit drugs is expected to grow, undermining health systems already weakened by the state of emergency. Analytical chemistry plays a key role in tackling this problem, and in implementing strategies that permit the recognition of uncompliant drugs. In light of this, the present work represents a feasibility study for the development of a NIR-based tool for the quantification of dexamethasone in mixtures of excipients (starch and lactose). Two different regression strategies were tested. The first, based on the coupling of NIR spectra and Partial Least Squares (PLS) provided good results (root mean square error in prediction (RMSEP) of 720 mg/kg), but the most accurate was the second, a strategy exploiting sequential preprocessing through orthogonalization (SPORT), which led (on the external set of mixtures) to an R2pred of 0.9044, and an RMSEP of 450 mg/kg. Eventually, Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) was applied to interpret the obtained results and determine which spectral regions contribute most to the SPORT model.