Abstract
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is important for agricultural production and the hydrological cycle. Knowledge of ET0 can aid the appropriate allocation of irrigation water in arid regions. This study analyzed the trends in ET0 over different timescales in the Tarim River basin (TRB), Central Asia. ET0 was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method using data from 1960-2017 from 30 meteorological stations located in the TRB. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test with trend-free prewhitening and Sen's slope estimator were applied to detect trends in ET0 variation. The results showed that the mean ET0 decreased at a rate of 0.49 mm·10 a-1 on an annual timescale. The mean ET0 exhibited a decreasing trend in summer and increasing trends in other seasons. The effects of climatic factors on ET0 were assessed by sensitivity analysis and contribution rate analysis. Maximum temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (WS) showed important effects on ET0. However, WS, which decreased, was the key element that induced changes in ET0 in the TRB. This work provides an important baseline for the management of agricultural water resources and scientific planning in agriculture.